Tuesday, January 28, 2003

Is Apple breaking out of the box?

(I haven't blogged about Apple at all yet, so time for a nod to my heritage.)

You know the box I'm talking about. The

  • minority platform forever
  • oddball chip falling behind on performance
  • dependent on Microsoft Office and Explorer
  • shrinking developer support
  • channel dead as a doornail
  • pushed back into the creatives' ghetto
box.

I went on record that Apple would not last the century independent because of these accumulated debits. I had to eat the big black bird on that one. Now I think there are accumulating signs that Apple is at least creating room for strategic maneuver. Bits of evidence:

  • iPod and Airport show Apple's ability to create real differentiation through packaging and interface in intensely commoditized markets.
  • iTunes, iVideo et. al. expand the notion of a basic software suite, and play right into the growth of consumer digital media.
  • Apple takes from the open source movement (KHTML->Safari), and gives back with Darwin. (I haven't used Darwin, but my neighbor has it on an old P4 box and says it's a real kick to see 'Welcome to Mac' on an x86.)
  • Rendezvous is made open, provides a real usability benefit, and breaks down complexity barriers created by directory and other name space servers.
  • Persistent rumors of a parallel x86 version of OS X that is tracking the PPC releases.
So how about some rank speculations on what pattern is being formed here...

One of the raps on open source has been that it's hard to create solid and consistent UIs through the community process. Safari and Darwin/OS X both position Apple as the UI value adder above an open infrastructure.

Apple is also positioning itself as a technology packager and brander in the large, getting set to move off of the computer per se on to peripheral and non-PC devices.

Apple is using the open source community to fill in some of its lack of commercial developer support, and as a Trojan horse to sneak into the 'x86' world.

Apple is pushing its dependence on Microsoft into parts of the market that matter less to the consumer user.

Apple is acting to undermine the value of the 'directory layer' in the Internet that is partly controlled by Microsoft, and partially removing a technical (and legal) single point of failure for distributed non-PC devices.

I'm not saying that all (or any) of these are received wisdom and strategy over in Cupertino. But the first stage in strategic maneuver is restoring freedom of movement. Apple could be wiggling out of the box.
5:01:55 PM